We’ll say we’re woefully unprepared to discuss the subtle differences between Keynes and Friedman and Hayek and their approaches to the finer points of the economy but we have no debt, our coffee fund is full and we can balance the checkbook with the cowboy on it our bank gave us when we started out in this business.
But, like most Americans, we’re keenly interested in the direction our economy is taking as we remember only too well those stories our ancestors pounded into us about the impact their Great Depression had on their lives.
With that in mind, we’re cranking up “Sweet Virginia” on the turntable and listening as friends, neighbors, readers check in with tales of woe and lament about the path we appear to be on as a nation and the direction the markets are headed.
Again, we’re scribblers and note and picture-takers so we won’t bother trying to impress you with our limited understanding of Keynesian Economics vis-à-vis their relation to Laissez-faire Capitalism or Malthusian theory. Rather, we’ll turn the matter over to you for discussion and – hopefully – settlement.
Let us know if you have any thoughts/insight into our current economic condition and if we should be a.) stocking up on our favorite coffee blends and bracing for the long haul or burying cash in mason jars out in the garden like grandma and gramps did back in ’29. We’ve already got a start on the Victory Garden…
When Trump talked about “lower prices”, I didn’t think he meant the stock market.
Politics aside I am both surprised and puzzled why we-he felt the need to start a trade war.
Things will have to get a lot worse before the spell breaks and his bedazzled can spot the con. Lots of suffering. Prices, savings, jobs, and international reputation.
Trust the process. Our elected leader is one of the absolute best negotiators of all time. There is a far far bigger plan. The panic is nauseating.
What a joke. He’s a failed businessman. Six bankruptcies. But there’s a line for even the diehards. He’ll get to it. But trying to claim he’s some smart negotiator is the absolute most ridiculous thing I’ve read today. No one with any knowledge or experience in business or economics thinks that. NO ONE.
Trust the process? Ha! How did that work out for the Sixers? At least Embiid didn’t file for bankruptcy 6 times
Personal communication to me today from a Danville retailer:
Things are only getting crazier here for me with tariffs. Applying these as they come is killing me and killing business. Already down 15% in my department. I think that’s why I got sick last week. I am rarely sick but the idea of raising cost/retail on much of the 10k + SKU’s I manage …. And then possibly having him, reverse course on a dime!
I’ve already lost two local vendors who have been looking for several months to make their product here. Not even CLOSE to feasible. One gal from Lafayette – last year she was one of “Oprah’s Favorite Things” – two days ago – done. It’s over for her.
And on that note, I’m heading downstairs to raise the price of olive oils. The company I buy from is currently taking the hit on the imported oils, but passing on the increase of glass bottles. So, onward we go.
Everyone is in their silos waiting for The Emperor to make up what passes for his mind. God help us.
I say give it a chance! I agree there might be some discomfort in the meanwhile but I honestly think the country is going to come out much better! Better for everyone! Possibly the golden era for the country. I also find it so interesting that while we suffered the previous four years with 23% inflation.. the administration and the news media kept telling us that it either wasn’t real or that was just transitional. It was not, a lot of us lost a lot of ground during those four years! So give it a chance- though I think the Trump haters would prefer the things fail. He probably won’t be happy with things come around and get really good! And what we’re not hearing about these tariffs is that Trump is just trying to match some of those countries tariffs. Why is it fair that Germany charges us 30% and we charge them 5%. Same with most of the countries is that fair? What’s wrong with making them the same?
Oh, he is getting his chance. He is making America great again right now. Surely you feel it. Keep tabs on your groceries this month and next month and revel in the winning.
The only thing worse than over-using exclamation points is repeating lies from this administration. You simply cannot believe anything that comes from the White House. Those tariff numbers were not even close to reality just like the amount DOGE is “saving” us.
Also, Musk is obviously the smarter of the two evils, and he prefers free trade with the EU without tariffs.
A question that I have is whether the impact of the tariffs will result in the return of manufacturing jobs to the US. There is uncertainty at this point, if that will come to fruition.
Have fun making sneakers and putting screws in iPhones. Terrific jobs, I hear!
Of course, we’ll have to open a safety net manufacturing company first so we can install them under the dorm windows.
Once the business networks figured out his secret “reciprocal” formula, they ridiculed the whole process as flawed and reverse-engineered to be more aggressive than anything reciprocal or anything approaching sensible. This is a total clown show. What company is going to move factories again after moving from China to Vietnam to escape his previous sanctions? What CEO is going to tell shareholders s/he needs to relocate factories over 3 – 5 years for a uniquely unstable president who is term-limited?
Who is going to make Nikes in the US? This is all for the oligarchy and his reality TV business, his singular success.
The clown car just keeps on rolling with Lutnick contradicting Bessent and Bessent parroting the party line. Even the propaganda network is scratching its head.
I could write about five pages on the topic out forward by 24/680, but my clients pay me a lot of money to do just that. I used to provide commentary in The Contra Costa Times on such matters.
Firestone 11R
Cool.
Billionaires and mega church pastors…
Totally agree – and harsher fines and penalties for public officials who break the law or profit from insider information gained through their positions.
Here’s just one comment, unfair trade ultimately benefits neither party. While painful, Trump is correct in principle.
Firestone 11R
trump, correct and principle in the same sentence is a double oxymoron
Being correct in principle or correct in theory is unrelated to what he is doing. The business channels do not normally ridicule a president’s actions as completely unsound, unfounded in fact or theory. His tariffs as announced are nonsensical. His goals are still unclear. Is raising revenue the long-term goal? Curbing fentanyl traffic? Eliminating tariffs by starting a trade war? It’s a clown show.
David, please don’t disparage the clowns.
The business channels only have one goal ….a higher stock market, they don’t care about national security. Sorry, we were destined for a trade war with China.
Retirement account definitely took a hit.
“The global economy is being taken down because of bad math,” the hedge fund manager William A. Ackman posted Monday morning on X. He added, “The President’s advisors need to acknowledge their error before April 9th and make a course correction before the President makes a big mistake.”
Ackman is a Trump booster, as is Langone (Home Depot), who is also newly critical.
S&P500 bounced 4% intraday only to close lower at a 1 year low after Trump doubled tariffs on Chinese goods starting at midnight.
Good night and good luck.
Trump took a demonstrably untrue and archaic set of assumptions about an incredibly complex subject (international trade), ran them through a verifiably incorrect formula (possibly concocted by ChatGPT), and then announced tariffs on uninhabited islands, countries with whom we have a trade surplus (i.e. Singapore), and countries with resources our economy heavily relies on (long list, you pick). Random lunacy. Oh, and he’s pretty clearly exceeding his legislative and budgetary authority here, but we no longer have legit checks and balances so…
Anyway, his dream of restoring US manufacturing to some golden heyday is absurd and unattainable: we no longer have the physical infrastructure or worker base, not to mention there are fewer and fewer companies & industries that can accurately be described as “American” or “foreign” anyway. He’s living in a long-gone hagiographic past that isn’t coming back. 50 years of globalization will not vanish in a few months because our Mad King threw a tantrum.
Are there instances in which we need to do a better job of protecting US workers & businesses from unfair trade practices with countries like India (!!) and China? Absolutely. Are slapdash universal tariffs a smart way to go about it? Absolutely not. How about some of that “negotiation” he’s supposed to be so good at? Threatening to blow up the room unless you get what you want isn’t negotiation, it’s extortion. Or worse: economic terrorism.
If the ENTIRE WORLD looks at what he’s doing and reaches the same conclusion (it’s a horrible mess, he & his advisors are idiots) and your response is to declare him Invincibly Wonderful while your 401(k) gets vaporized, you may be in a cult. I wish that was just a “you” problem, but the rest of us are paying for all this too. Current tab on lost wealth since last Thursday (4 business days ago) is somewhere in the neighborhood of ten trillion dollars (!!) and counting. And it’s all a completely unnecessary, fabricated, ridiculous disaster. MAGA on that.
I think you should take a subscription to The Economist.
Firestone 11R
I am a subscriber to the Economist, FWIW. You might want to check out Mother Jones, Wired, and the Atlantic. Oh, and the Mad King just paused the tariffs out of nowhere for 90 days. Totally absurd and untethered from reality. There is no plan. He has no idea what he’s doing, and if you were pro-tariff yesterday you’re not allowed to celebrate this “pause,” cuz if they’re so good why pause? Chaos.
If you’re aware of the Economist predicting the speedy return of large-scale manufacturing to the US in response to these tariffs please drop a link. Please note: current administration sources are not acceptable, because they’re all a bunch of feckless idiots.
Michelin 36DD
FYI: https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2025/04/09/americas-tariffs-are-the-worst-policy-shock-in-trade-history
The “pause” is only for countries not raising their tariffs and will negotiate to zero tariffs. China is still on the list.
West Hollywood 9R
Oh dude, please. Trump’s chief trade rep Jamieson Greer was literally testifying to Congress in favor of the full tariff policy (aka the policy from this morning) when Trump announced his highly strategic and carefully planned “pause” (otherwise known as a sudden panicked reversal). They have no idea what they’re doing. And again, you can’t run around touting the beauty and wonder of universal tariffs and then suddenly decide they should really be targeted based on…things. It’s embarrassing. Or at least it should be, but it’s well established these people know no shame.
https://www.cnn.com/2025/04/09/business/trump-top-trade-official-testifies-house-tariffs/index.html
I’m still waiting on that link from the Economist making the argument that all this lunacy will result in a massive short-term re-tooling of the US manufacturing base. Actually I’m not waiting, cuz it ain’t coming. If it was even a remote possibility (it wasn’t), Himself just destroyed it.
Oh, curious as to what “West Hollywood 9R” might refer to – feel free to elaborate. For reference Bridgestone 36DD was a reference to a tire company and a bra size.
Someone should inform the trade spokespersons as to what trade policy changes the president actually coughed up because they were immediately contradicting themselves on where the 10% tariff applied.
Wait until April 2 when everything will become clear, they said. Then they said: Wait 90 days for things to become clear.
We are not negotiating. We are negotiating right now.
This is a clown show, and whatever guarantees the US offers are not to be taken seriously.
Trade policy is like Trump’s net worth. It depends upon how he feels at any given moment.